Probability & Frequencies. Decisions under uncertainty

When making judgement or decision we often use heuristics, also known short cut. For example when I think of a model, I think of tall, slim, beautiful person with an eye for fashion. Not to say am wrong or anything but then I don't take into account that a person could attribute all those things and not be a model. When making such judgement we use what is known as representative heuristics, where we look for similarities, most common and most frequent. We attach a high level of importance to certain information which lead us to these judgments. In my case I have attached the importance to tall, slim, beautiful and eye for fashion but in this modern world where people are very weight conscious and always following trend these kind of attribute could fit anyone besides a model. When I don't take into account the proportion of people who are like that as opposed to something else I make what is known as the base rate neglect.

Talking about the attachment of importance to certain things bring me my next point where people often assume that having success on a win will show having success on the next. For example in the casino when people first win, most people tend to think that if they've won then the would probably win in the second round. The russian roulette is based on randomness and having a success in first round does not predict having a success in a second round.

Decision Making, Good or Bad???

Decision we make are usually informed by our judgements we have about the issue at hand. We make decisions in our everyday life, "should I take the train today or walk"?, "Should I buy the red or blue top?". The action we decide to take is the decision.

When making decisions we usually weigh the outcome, the consequences.  Sometimes we make decisions which we might think is good but others might disagree.
But what makes a good decision? Is it a decision everyone will agree on or a decision we believe is right? Sometimes we might make decisions that we believe is good but opposite to others. What clues do you draw on when making decisions?. Sometimes we want to wait till we are absolutely certain before we make a decision and most times we end up not making any decision at all.

Nevertheless we should always know that the amount of time that goes into a decision is what makes a decision good or bad. Taking time to think through a problem will make one come to a reasonable decision.